As Joe Biden visits Mexico City Monday – the first foray by a U.S. president to the southern neighbor in nearly a decade – the prevailing perception of the U.S.-Mexico relationship is one of crisis, dysfunction, and danger.

The U.S.-Mexico border is the locus of a chaotic influx of migrants from across the Americas that shows no signs of abating. The opioid crisis that led to more than 100,000 American deaths last year is fueled by cheap pharmaceuticals like fentanyl smuggled north by Mexico’s

Wilson Center Articles on North America and USMCA, I edited and drafted 24 of the 26

By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

North America is still the commercial dynamo for the United States, Mexico and Canada with $3 million per minute in goods traded between the United States and its two neighbors in the first nine months of 2022.

Canada and Mexico are the top two U.S. trade partners, together accounting for more than twice what the U.S. trades with China. North American trade is growing at double digits within the framework of the United States-Mexico-Canad

North America was trending in the midterm elections, although you may have missed it. Think about the top campaign issues in races across the country: economic recovery and job creation, inflation, the price of gasoline, immigration, border security, increasing crime and suffering in communities devastated by fentanyl and other drugs. With the exceptions of abortion and election integrity, virtually every issue that motivated voters also impacts — and is impacted by — North America.

In short, r

By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

This occasion provides a special opportunity to value how intertwined the two nations are, and how, more than ever, each country’s well-being depends on finding the best possible ways to resolve differences with the other, and to build on opportunities for mutual benefit.

The Mexico-U.S. relationship is quintessentially “inter-mestic” or “inter-mestica” — which means key issues are international and domestic at the same time. The ties bet

2022 made history because of the historic, unified response among key nations to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s invasion not only signaled a direct assault on the international order in Europe and against many values cherished among democracies, but it also set off additional disruptions in global supply chains, still reeling from pandemic effects, and affecting food, fertilizer, and energy supplies, as well as fueling global inflation. Russia’s brutal assault incentivized North American, European, and Asian partners to coordinate policies and actions more closely via NATO, the G7, and US-EU collaboration. The conflict fed doubts about China’s international role after it decided to align more closely with Russia—a trend reinforced by China’s renewed threats toward Taiwan. The US and many other countries were already struggling to respond to the transformations underway in the version of globalization that had interlinked economies from north and south, east and west, for the past two decades, in rising geostrategic rivalries, and democratic backsliding at home and abroad. Russia’s invasion helped to put those challenges into a starker reality and spur cooperation. Those banding together to oppose Russia’s aggression continue to face serious challenges, as they work to fashion and sustain effective cooperation in circumstances that are severely testing domestic policy-making institutions, as well as international agreements, organizations, and problem-solving mechanisms. Thus far, however, the concerted multi-nation response to Russia’s invasion has made 2022 a historic year with the potential to be truly pivotal. Earl Anthony Wayne

Today, the USMCA is more important than ever for the prosperity of North America.

During the USMCA’s third year, North American trade has reached over $2.6 a minute and continues to grow by double-digit percentages. This growth significantly surpasses pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, Canada and Mexico remain the United States’ top trading partners.

The USMCA can also help the three North American partners to realize the benefits of reshoring and nearshoring from Asia. Many analysts have discusse

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is more important than ever for the prosperity of North America.

During USMCA’s third year, North American trade has reached over $2.6 a minute and continues to grow by double digit percentages. This growth significantly surpasses pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, Canada and Mexico remain the United States’ top trading partners.

The USMCA provides continent-wide rules, norms, and problem-solving processes that can help the three countries to conti

North America was trending in the midterm elections, although you may have missed it. Think about the top campaign issues in races across the country: economic recovery and job creation, inflation, the price of gasoline, immigration, border security, increasing crime and suffering in communities devastated by fentanyl and other drugs. With the exceptions of abortion and election integrity, virtually every issue that motivated voters also impacts — and is impacted by — North America.
In short, relations with Mexico and Canada touch the daily lives of more Americans than do ties with any other countries in the world.
And with President Biden having recently returned from Asia and his first presidential face-to-face meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, we are reminded that a more unified North America is required to meet the China challenge, economically and strategically. A disunited North America is catnip for global authoritarians. A stronger, more collaborative North American strategy can strengthen the United States’s ability to compete with China and others as the global scene transforms.

By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

In October 2021, Mexico and the United States launched a “High-Level Security Dialogue” (HLSD) to step up collaboration and rebuild trust in efforts to counter deadly cross-border crime. Mexican and U.S. cabinet members just held a one-year review of those efforts.

The two governments have made some good progress, but much serious work remains to effectively counter and reduce the great harm that cross-border organized crime is causing to

In October 2021, Mexico and the United States launched a “High Level Security Dialogue” (HLSD) to step up collaboration and rebuild trust in efforts to counter deadly cross-border crime. Mexican and US cabinet members just held a one-year review.

The two governments have made some good progress, but much serious work remains to effectively counter and reduce the great harm that cross-border organized crime is causing to communities across both countries. The challenge remains to turn agreed objectives into effective bilateral action plans and measurable outcomes.

Of particular importance going forward is establishing a clear, comprehensive, multi-year strategy for reducing supplies of the deadly drug fentanyl as well as for reducing US demand for this lethal drug. The US suffered 108,000 drug overdose deaths in the latest reported yearly figures, and some 2/3 of those deaths were from synthetic opioids, particularly fentanyl.

I am happy to have contributed an article on the importance of workforce development programs to this excellent new collection on how cooperation across North America can boost well being in Canada, Mexico and the United States. North America has survived a tumultuous three decades since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. What characterizes our shared region today? What sort of region can advance our shared interests and well-being over the next generation? This volume offers an agenda for how the region’s leaders can forge inclusive and effective strategies that ensure North America’s next decades build upon past successes—while addressing serious shortcomings.

By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

A year ago, Mexico and the United States launched a High-Level Security Dialogue (HLSD). In recognition of 200 years of bilateral relations, they agreed on a Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health and Safe Communities, with the hope of rebuilding cooperation to counter the deadly crime that harms many tens of thousands on both sides of the border.

In January 2022, the two governments further agreed on a set of objectives for t

A year ago, Mexico and the United States launched a “High-Level Security Dialogue” (HLSD). In recognition of the 200 years of bilateral relations, they agreed on a “Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health and Safe Communities,” with the hope of rebuilding cooperation to counter the deadly crime that harms many tens of thousands on both sides of the border.

In January 2022, the two governments further agreed on a set of objectives for the security partnership, to cover three pillars o

By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

Two years into the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), many challenges and opportunities for forging an Integrated North America remain.

The USMCA, known in Mexico as the Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canada (T-Mec), created an updated legal framework within which the private sectors in Mexico, the United States and Canada, as well as the three national governments, can address and manage a wider range of trade issues th

One year after the fall of Kabul and departure of U.S. troops, the United States still has an important policy and action agenda regarding Afghanistan but with less leverage in a country suffering serious problems.

Millions in Afghanistan face the dire effects of a devastating humanitarian and economic crisis. The Taliban government is focused on installing its version of an Islamic Emirate and cementing control. The new regime gives little priority to including non-Taliban Afghans or to the hu

One year after the fall of Kabul and departure of U.S. troops, the United States still has an important policy and action agenda regarding Afghanistan, but with less leverage in a country suffering serious problems.

Millions in Afghanistan face the dire effects of a devastating humanitarian and economic crisis. The Taliban government is focused on installing its version of an Islamic Emirate and cementing control. The new regime gives little priority to including non-Taliban Afghans or to the h

This report was done by a group of seniors at American University's School of International Service as part of the State Department's Diplomacy Laboratory program, working with retired Ambassador Wayne. Here is the Executive Summary:

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USCMA is now in its third year of implementation. Notably, trade across North America has surpassed pre-pandemic levels growing to a total of $1.26 trillion in 2021 or $2.6 million a minute.i To add perspective, a record 75% of Mexican and Canadian imports came from the US in 2021. Both countries are also the US’ largest trading partners accounting for over twice trade with China.

The trade ministers and their teams are deeply engaged in a wide range of issues as was evident in the agenda for July meeting in Canada This agenda includes not only hard trade and investment issues but also how to make USMCA more inclusive of communities that are traditionally underrepresented in trade.ii USMCA has particularly won kudos from US congress for progress on use of the new Rapid Response Mechanism for Labor Complaints which has been used five times as of August 2022.

Despite the good news and evident progress in the broad trade and investment relationships, there remain serious disputes and problems to work through over the months and years ahead. For example, the United States, supported by Canada, on July 20 requested consultations under USMCA over Mexico’s energy policies and related treatment of private sector investors at the expense of state-owned electricity and oil and gas enterprises. This action followed a series of private conversations where these concerns were raised. Without significant progress during the period of consultations, the US could seek creation of a dispute settlement panel and potentially win the right to sanction Mexico if does not change its policies/practices. Progress on such divisive issues and effective use of USMCA’s dispute resolution mechanisms are important to demonstrate the credibility of the agreement before the agreed review of USMCA’s performance in 2025-26.iii

It is important to recall that USMCA was negotiated to address emerging challenges facing 21st century international trade and to provide a much-needed update to its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). From the increasing relevance of the digital marketplace to progressive shifts in policy toward encouraging development and training of workers, the USMCA includes provisions to help modernize the trilateral trade relationship. As USMCA enters its third year, a number of areas within the agreement are also under scrutiny with questions about enforcement or interpretation by one of the parties, and in others because of a desire to understand the effects the new agreement is having on the economies of all three countries (e.g. in the auto sector).

The US, Mexican and Canadian governments have also agreed on goals that go beyond just increasing trade flows and commercial activity to include such factors as more inclusive participation in trade across North America and support for democratic labor rights practices. This signals that the metrics for measuring USMCA’s “success” will include a range of factors beyond simple trade and investment numbers, and some will likely be hard to quantify.

To better unlock the potential of the USMCA, this report recommends that the governments of the United States, Mexico, and Canada take specific actions that can help strengthen trilateral commerce and improve upon some of the disputed and/or flawed aspects of the deal. One of the key challenges in implementing USMCA is accounting for the needs of the many sectors involved in North American trade and co-production and the wide array of stakeholders involved. The diversity of stakeholders and audiences impacted by USMCA, and North American commerce demands both concrete solutions to problem areas and effective public outreach by the three national governments beyond what is being done at present.

The authors studied the USMCA document that entered into effect in July 2020, spoke with a range of experts and industry leaders, and analyzed a wide selection of studies and policy publications. Building on this research, the team recommends the following priorities, presented largely from a United States perspective:

Digital Trade, SME Engagement, and Cybersecurity Cooperation
● Establish a North American Digital Trade Council to help coordinate and direct progress.
● Continue and increase dialogues and stakeholder outreach toward SME e-commerce development.
● Achieve SME empowerment and digital inclusion through capacity and skills development programs.
● Increase efforts to quantify and measure digital trade.
● Hold Mexico and Canada responsible for data localization violations.
Labor Democracy and Workforce Development
● Track reform progress using a shared database which will support US and Canadian labor implementation assistance programs aimed at supporting Mexican reforms.
● Review and potentially revise Labor Dispute Settlement mechanisms during the USMCA 6-year review.
● Collaborate further on forced labor.
● Assemble a Forced Labor Task Force under the Labor Committee.
● Move to adopt real-time labor data collection and expanded credentialing programs by all three federal governments.
Automotive Rules of Origin
● Expedite a resolution of the current dispute in accordance with USMCA’s Article 31.6 over the interpretation of Core/Super-core Roll-up, or content tabulation.
● Work constructively with suppliers and automakers to provide them with more time to collect and report the content requirements and related information necessary for automakers to fully comply with USMCA provisions.
● Streamline the USMCA compliance and certification procedures based on implementation experiences.
● Create further incentives for consumers to purchase electric vehicles sourced in North America, rather than proceeding unilaterally.
Agriculture
● Use all available means so that Mexico adopts a regulatory framework for evaluating GMOs, as stated in USMCA’s Article 3.14.4.
● Launch a multi-agency effort (USTR, U.S. Department of Commerce, USDA, and others as appropriate) to engage in active discussions regarding the long-standing differences over tomato trade with stakeholder groups and Mexican officials to find a resolution to the dispute.
● Continue working to reduce tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber to comply with previous trade rulings, lower U.S. housing prices, and to avoid a dispute settlement complaint by Canada under USMCA.
Good Regulatory Practices (GRP)
● The GRP Committee established by USMCA should meet.
● Harness emerging technologies for conducting Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs).
● Take initial steps toward regulatory alignment – data collection, transparency, and identifying priority sectors, with the goal of having robust collaboration underway by the first USMCA review starting in 2025.
Environment and Energy Policy
● Task the new Environmental Committee with creating a strategic plan on climate change, including implementable goals for the pre-existing Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) regarding climate cooperation.
● Create a dialogue among North American peers regarding increasing funding for the CEC to ensure the agency has the funds to implement climate programs while not interfering with existing programs and day-to-day functions.
● As allowed in Article 1.3.2, begin negotiations regarding the addition of the Paris Climate Agreement to the list of multilateral environmental agreements.
● Increased cooperative capacity should be allocated towards harmonizing regional energy efficiency standards as established in Article 12.D.4.
● Develop an agreed US policy framework for addressing and influencing the Mexican government’s energy policies and practices that violate USMCA. Coordinate closely with Canada. Pursue dispute settlement as needed.
● Utilize the USMCA’s Competitiveness Committee to help establish a dialogue regarding North American energy cooperation and regional energy competitiveness.
Public Face: Public Outreach, Transparency, and Public Education
● Acknowledge current limits in public outreach and communications capacity within the USG, including USTR, and create a USG inter- agency working group to devise a more effective public outreach strategy, including to stakeholders as well as the broader public.
● Given similar capacity limitations in the Mexican and Canadian governments, create a standing working committee on public outreach and communications either directly in the USMCA under the Free Trade Commission or perhaps indirectly through coordination mechanisms (e.g., North American Leaders Summit working group).
● In preparation for and during the first sunset review beginning in year five, identify possibilities for more robust and coordinated public communication and outreach efforts regarding USMCA and its benefits for the public.
Emergency Coordination: The authors welcome the decision announced by trade ministers at their July meeting to set up a mechanism under the Competitiveness Committee that can help maintaining trade flows in emergency situations. This is essential for all three countries, given the size and importance of trade flows. With recent examples where cross-border trade was disrupted by a range of unexpected developments from the pandemic to political decisions, this new mechanism can help bolster the other efforts among the three countries to modernize and develop cross border infrastructure, improve border crossing processes and deal with emergencies.

The authors understand that unlocking the potential successes of USMCA will take “whole of government” efforts by all three governments, including the work of foreign ministries, and a range of other agencies. Successful coordination will be challenging in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, especially when involving all the sub-federal governments that must play a role. Yet, the authors came away from its work confident that pulling together, the full potential of the USMCA can be unlocked. Similarly, good public outreach and regular conversations with USMCA’s many stakeholders across the agreement’s three nations will help improve the benefits that accompany trade. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are all in a good position to bolster economic wellbeing in each country and North America’s strength in the international marketplace. We hope that the recommendations described in this report will help the United States and its two key partners to strengthen USMCA’s positive impact in North America.

By EARL ANTHONY WAYNE, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

The request by the United States, followed by Canada, for consultations regarding Mexican laws, policies and practices related to its energy sector is a major test for the dispute settlement procedures of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Though the U.S. and Canadian complaints are directed toward Mexico’s energy policies and treatment of private investors, the outcomes of the dispute will be crucial for the credibility of USMCA

Earl Anthony Wayne, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and co-chair of the Mexico Institute
Advisory Board at the Wilson Center:

The U.S. and Canadian requests for consultations over Mexican practices related
to energy are a major test for the USMCA’s dispute settlement procedures. The outcomes will send strong signals about how the three countries can manage sensitive problems and about Mexico’s investment environment.

When the USMCA turned two years old on July 1, U.S.-Mexico-Canada
trade had surpassed pre-pandemic levels and provided most of Mexico’s economic growth.

It is positive that the U.S. and Canada are seeking to use the USMCA’s
provisions for consultations and, if not successful, for a dispute resolution panel of independent experts to draw conclusions as to whether Mexico is violating the agreement.

Cases like this are why the USMCA has stronger dispute resolution processes than
NAFTA. Mexico and Canada already have an active complaint against the United States, disagreeing over rules of origin for vehicles. The United States has filed a second complaint against Canada over dairy practices.

This energy case touches an estimated $20 billion plus in investments. U.S. officials
have raised concerns seeking solutions for many months.

How Mexico responds will be key. The Economy Ministry says it looks
forward to pursuing consultations, but the Mexican president has responded with
nationalist rhetoric, reflecting his priority on a strong state role in energy.

Negotiated solutions are possible, but as the process proceeds, the United States, Canada and others will watch carefully to see if Mexico is willing to adjust to meet the commitments to which it agreed in the USMCA. That will send strong signals to potential investors, the U.S.
Congress and other key players.

Since coming to power in Afghanistan last year, the Taliban has increasingly reverted to form on almost every level. The killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Kabul safe house on Sunday, July 31, only underscores the group’s continued close ties with the Taliban, particularly the Haqqani network.

Taliban leaders are also steadily reimposing the world’s most extreme restrictions by far on women and girls, returning to their old practices of “disappearing” women by closing off their e

The request by the United States, followed by Canada, for consultations regarding Mexican laws, policies and practices related to its energy sector is a major test for the dispute settlement procedures of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Though the U.S. and Canadian complaints are directed toward Mexico’s energy policies and treatment of private investors, the outcomes of the dispute will be crucial for the credibility of the agreement itself.

The USMCA governs the massive tra

Since coming to power last year, the Taliban has increasingly reverted to form on almost every level. The killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Kabul safe house on July 31 only underscores the group’s continued close ties with the Taliban, particularly the Haqqani network. They are also steadily reimposing the world’s most extreme restrictions by far on women and girls, returning to their old practices of “disappearing” women by closing off their education, restricting their travel,