An excellent two hour discussion organized by UNAM

Good discussion by Mexican and US experts on the big US-Mexico trade issues to be decided in the next year and a half.

Mexico and the US have serious challenges ahead to work through on many aspects of relations over the year ahead - border management, migrations, trade, crime, and many other issues.

The incoming Trump administration is poised to prioritize its immigration concerns with Mexico over trade issues, which could complicate the 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico said on Friday.

During a Nov. 15 discussion hosted by the Wilson Center, Earl Anthony Wayne, the U.S. envoy to Mexico from 2011-2015, said immigration could overshadow trade ahead of the first USMCA review. Wayne is a public policy fellow at the Wilson Center and co-chairs an advisory board at the center’s Mexico Institute.

“Two things are going to come up before we ever get to trade negotiations. One is how migration is handled and two is related to how the border is handled.” Wayne said. “And President Trump has made clear that he would like clarity from Mexico on how they're going to handle both of these issues if they're going to get negotiations through.”

“And so here we're already seeing the [non-]trade issues being implicit for either additional tariffs being put on and/or slowing down bilateral trade negotiations,” Wayne added.

Trump earlier this month threatened to impose tariffs of 25 percent or higher on all goods from Mexico if the country does not take more aggressive action to crack down on immigration and the flow of drugs across the U.S. border. If applied to Mexico, the new duty -- as well as a proposed 10 percent blanket tariff on all U.S. imports -- could run afoul of the U.S.’ commitments under USMCA.

Mexico, though, is likely to cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration issues, Wayne argued.

“So, you know, before we get to trade, we’ve got really important work on how people move and how trade takes place across the border between the U.S. and Mexico,” Wayne said. “And then if we get that sorted out then we get to a number of trade issues.”

These issues would include past and ongoing trade irritants, such as disputes on automotive rules-of-origin and biotechnology as well as the U.S.’ concerns with Mexico’s energy policies, Wayne added.

A USMCA dispute settlement panel in late 2022 ruled against the U.S.’ position on automotive rules of origin. A separate panel is expected to issue a final ruling later this month on Mexican restrictions on genetically engineered corn. The U.S. in 2022 also requested USMCA consultations over several Mexican energy policies, though it has not yet escalated those concerns to the panel stage.

During the discussion on Friday, Karen Antebi, the international practice chair at Prime Policy Group, argued a second Trump administration would further blur the lines between trade policy and other issues, making the USMCA review “more painful” for Mexico. Antebi worked as an economic counselor at the Mexican embassy’s Trade and NAFTA Office during the North American Free Trade Agreement’s renegotiation.

“It is no secret the kind of personality that President-elect Trump has and what his view with regards to trade and with regards to Mexico and Mexico's role are,” she said. “The U.S.-Mexico relationship is already subject to significant tensions, and pardon the cliche, but there's no Chinese wall anymore separating the trade agenda from the rest of the bilateral [agenda,] so that's going to make the review a ... a little bit more painful for Mexico.”

Wayne also contended that discussions about China would be prominent during the USMCA review.

“China is another big issue that I think we are going to deal with,” he said. “Here we have the United States and Canada moving to[ward] an aligned position and we will see how much Mexico is going to line up on China,” he added, noting Mexico will likely seek alignment as well.

The U.S. will make a “strong push” for Mexico to define its relationship with Beijing and decide whether it’s going to be “part of North America and this agreement” or continue to support Chinese investments, Antebi said. Pressure on Mexico to limit its ties with China is likely be one of the few aspects of the USMCA review that could enjoy bipartisan support, she added.

USTR in July said Chinese investment into Mexico’s auto industry would be a major topic of discussion during the review. -- Jason Asenso (jasenso@iwpnews.com) U.S. Trade is a subscription-fee-based daily digital news service from Inside Washington Publishers.
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US Election Special: Voices on Latin America An array of experts weigh in on how the US election could affect Latin America and the Caribbean – and why. by Rebecca Bill Chavez, Marcello Estevão, Arturo Porzecanski, Earl Anthony Wayne and Christopher da Cunha Bueno Garman October 21, 2024

© 2024 Latin American Financial Publications, Inc. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of LatinFinance https://latinfinance.com/magazine/2024/10/21/us-election-special-voices-on-latin-america/ .

Recently, the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training asking me to write up the experiment in “rock diplomacy” that we undertook in embassy Buenos Aires when I was Ambassador in 2007-2009. We drew upon the mutual love of “rock” (and other popular) music between Argentines and Americans to help build bonds and overcome deep anti-American sentiment in Argentina at that time.

We took advantage of the tremendous popularity of American music among Argentines, the willingness of visiting US musicians to partner with us to embrace local youth, and the bonding powers of music to help move beyond differences and open space for dialogue. Music became one important facilitating tool in work to achieve our embassy’s public diplomacy objectives, and I got a nickname as a “rock ambassador,” which Secretary Clinton used when swearing me in as ambassador to Mexico in 2011.

US-Mexico collaboration against drug smuggling hit a low point in 2019-20 and has improved with hard work from both sides since 2021. Cooperation should continue given the great suffering cross border crime causes for
Mexicans and Americans. Tensions surrounding the arrests of El Mayo and Joaquin Guzman Lopez remind us that US-Mexico trust and cooperation fall short of what is needed to produce consistent and meaningful progress
against the deadly problems of illicit cross border flows of drugs, arms and money.

US law enforcement and justice agencies face pressure to detain those charged with grave offenses, and Mexico’s government remains deeply sensitive to protecting its sovereignty. These and related issues, including
corruption, prevent the two governments from building the level of mutual trust that is needed for more effective intelligence sharing, operational planning, and coordination to bring criminals to justice.

Given the timing of the El Mayo’s arrest during Mexico’s presidential transition and the US election, both governments will likely work to manage
tensions and to maintain cooperation, but this is a clear reminder that collaboration against cross border criminal organizations needs to improve significantly for the interests of both countries.

Mexico’s incoming president Claudia Sheinbaum and her team worked well with US officials on public security when she was Mexico City’s mayor. Sheinbaum’s government plan highlights the need to improve coordination across agencies and calls for better intelligence gathering against crime. Hopefully this outlook will help improve cooperation, but much will depend on the outcome of the US election.

Twitter feed about USMCA at 4 and trade and investment across North America and China's role. Diego Marroquin and I drafted it.

Welcome to the second in our recurring series looking at what to expect from Claudia Sheinbaum’s incoming administration. This time, we caught up with Washington’s former Ambassador to Mexico, Earl Anthony Wayne, who served under President Obama from 2011 - 2015. Here, he lays out the five key things policymakers in Washington will be watching as President-elect Sheinbaum takes office.




















Constitutional reforms.Will Mexico’s constitutional reforms cause damage to...

Since coming into force on July 1, 2020, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has undergone a trial by fire and delivered remarkable results. Despite the COVID-19 crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising tensions with China, goods and services trade within North America has soared by 50% and investment in new ventures has grown by 136%. Representing a third of the world’s Gross Domestic Product, USMCA's stable and enforceable framework has successfully addressed multiple tra...

Mexico made history on June 2, 2024, when it elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. These elections were the largest in Mexico’s history, with representatives for more than 20,000 public office positions at the congressional and local levels chosen, according to the AP. Election results are likely to be finalized later this week, but Sheinbaum was declared the winner of the presidential election based on a very high margin of victory in preliminary results reported late on June 2

On June 2, Mexicans will choose a new president, a new congress and many thousands of state and local officials in Mexico’s largest elections ever.

At present, polls show a large advantage to Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate supported by incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), over her principal rival, Xóchitl Gálvez, who heads the opposition coalition ticket in Mexico’s presidential elections.

Beyond the presidential race, the outcomes in congressional and state e

On June 2, Mexicans will choose a new president, a new congress, and many thousands of state and local officials in Mexico’s largest election ever.

At present, polls show a large advantage to Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate supported by incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), over her principle rival, Xochitl Galvez, who heads the opposition coalition ticket.

Beyond the presidential race, the outcomes in congressional and state elections will have big implications ...

A quick look at rankings and evaluations on democracy in Mexico by respected international studies and reports.

by Joe B. Johnson

When I was a college senior, I would have jumped at the chance to advise the Department of State on its public communication. Now, Anthony Wayne, a PDCA member and Diplomat in Residence at American University’s School of International Service, has enabled some of his students to do just that as part of State’s Diplomacy Lab.

Diplomacy Lab, launched by State in 2013, is a public-private partnership with more than sixty U.S. colleges and universities to sponsor research around various Department-identified topics. It is part of the Office of Global Partnerships, where State engages with outside entities in many ways.

Influencers and public diplomacy …

When Amb. Wayne put me in touch with his six seniors at SIS as one source for their project, I was skeptical. Their topic focused on the use of "Influencers" as part of U.S. public diplomacy. Their client was the Global Public Affairs Bureau (GPA). This area, which has not been spelled out in Department manuals, is much discussed by practitioners who seek to project policy messages through independent voices. I asked myself:

• What are the ethical guardrails that separate legitimate local partnerships from deceptive “sock puppetry"?
• Is this topic too difficult for college seniors with limited practical experience?

The team interviewed a number of sources including PDCA members and some of my former colleagues on the Foreign Service Institute’s training staff. More importantly, they conducted extensive desk research, which shows in their comprehensive report.

The report begins with a general survey of PD, citing 63 sources in a literature review. The team endorses a comprehensive approach incorporating messaging with cultural programs and other PD elements. It upholds transparency and two-way communication. And it describes the alignment of messages, goals and audiences that characterizes effective programs.

After reviewing 2,849 media releases to ascertain themes (security, economic policies and social justice) reflecting the Department’s most important priorities and to identify milestone events, the team went online to find the most effective influencers for specific topics and events, and even provided pitches to propose partnerships. They did the same for specific taskings by GPA like the NATO Summit and migration and refugees. Their descriptions of potential partners with large online followings makes for a fascinating read.

On June 2, Mexicans will choose a new president, a new Congress, and thousands of state and local officials. The outcomes and the aftermath will have major implications for the United States as well as for Mexico. The U.S. must pay close attention.

The U.S. relationship with Mexico touches the daily lives of more Americans than any other country in the world. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trade and co-production partner. It is the pathway for most irregular migration and the largest single sourc